Subscribers get more award-winning coverage of advances in science & technology. It is likely that a growing La Niña event in the tropical Pacific will modestly depress temperatures in the next few months, but its main effect will be felt in 2021, as global temperatures tend to lag behind those in the El Niño region of the Pacific by around three months.
The figure below shows a clear and steady decline in Arctic sea ice since the late 1970s, with darker colours (earlier years) at the top and lighter colors (more recent years) much lower. This model used the average temperature over first nine months of the year, the latest monthly temperature value (September 2020), the average ENSO 3.4 region value during the first nine months of the year and the average predicted ENSO 3.4 value during the last three months of the year to estimate the annual temperatures. The sea ice recovery has also been unusually slow in the Arctic this year, with sea ice in mid-October at record low levels for this time of year. © 2020 Scientific American, a Division of Springer Nature America, Inc. Support our award-winning coverage of advances in science & technology. That bunching of heat records in more recent years is, again, because of long-term warming, which is stacking the deck for ever more frequent records.
While climate records are a useful benchmark to highlight the warming of the planet, the change in temperatures, sea ice and other climate factors over time are much more important than if any single year sets a new record. Credit: Mauritius images GmbH / Alamy Stock Photo. Next year is also unlikely to see a strong natural warming event, with no El Niño predicted.
The figure below shows the temperature anomalies – changes relative to the 1981-2010 average temperature – for each year since 1970, along with the average over the first nine months of 2020.
2019 was the second warmest year since record-keeping began in 1880, and the 2010s were by far the warmest decade.
Temperature rises have been uneven across the globe, with the Arctic heating far faster than the average. © 2020 Scientific American, a Division of Springer Nature America, Inc. Support our award-winning coverage of advances in science & technology.
This is all the more remarkable because it will lack any major El Niño event – a factor that has contributed to most prior record warm years. According to Taalas, however, this is now more than offset by global heating, and 2020 “remains on track to be one of the warmest years on record”, with 2016-20 … You are welcome to reproduce unadapted material in full for non-commercial use, credited ‘Carbon Brief’ with a link to the article. More recently the Siberian town of Verkhoyansk reported 100.4 degrees F. If this figure is verified by the World Meteorological Organization, it would be the first time recorded temperatures above the Arctic Circle have surpassed 100 degrees F. But this hotspot is not the sole reason that 2020 is near the top of the charts. Its forecast for 2020 is for an increase in global average temperature of between 0.99C and 1.23C, with a central estimate of 1.11C. Temperatures are expected to be more than 1.1C above pre-industrial average. Meteorological summer — June through August’s end — was a standout: It ranked 4th hottest and in the driest one-third of all summers in the historical record. Hurricane Laura made landfall on August 27 in southwest Louisiana with 150-mph winds. State of the climate: 2020 on course to be warmest year on record, State of the climate: 2020 more likely than not to be warmest year on record.
© 2020 Guardian News & Media Limited or its affiliated companies. Summer 2020 ended with the ranking of 4th-hottest summer on record. Global year-to-date temperatures show little deviation from 2016, the warmest calendar year recorded so far, Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service reported on Wednesday. The contiguous U.S. has seen 21.64 inches of precipitation for the YTD (0.93 of an inch above the long-term average), placing it in the wettest third of record. Surface temperature records have shown around 0.9C warming since the year 1970, a warming rate of about 0.18C per decade. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Access NOAA’s August U.S. climate report and download the, Large, deep Antarctic ozone hole to persist into November, U.S. Winter Outlook: Cooler North, warmer South with ongoing La Nina. To that point, 1998, the one 20th-century year that remains in NOAA’s top-10 warmest, did have a major El Niño. The atmospheric concentration of CH4 began to increase again in 2006 after a plateau from 1999. The first nine months of the year saw record concentrations of major greenhouse gases – CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide – in the atmosphere.
Asia, South America and Europe all had a record-warm first half of the year. Note that these probabilities do not include measurement uncertainty for each record, just the best estimate. 2020 was the hottest summer on record for dozens of US cities Places like Phoenix, Tucson and Sacramento recorded their hottest months ever. While predicting the course of La Niña and El Niño events is challenging, it does make it likely that 2021 will be at least modestly cooler than 2020.
No matter where 2020 ends up in the standings, it will be warm enough to knock 1998 out of NOAA’s top 10. The run 2020 is making for the title of hottest year is happening without the major El Niño event that helped propel 2016 to the top of the rankings. Temperatures were particularly high in the Southeast, averaging 54.6 F. That fell just short of the January-March record of 54.7 F, which was set in 2012, but was 5.5 F above the 126-year average. Hurricane Isaias struck North Carolina on August 4 and quickly accelerated up the East Coast, bringing widespread damage and power outages across New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. But an El Niño is not necessary to take the lead: both 2014 and 2015 became the then hottest year without one. The figure below shows concentrations of these greenhouse gases – in parts per million (ppm) for CO2 and parts per billion (ppb) for methane and nitrous oxide – from the early 1980s through June 2020 (the most recent data currently available). Solar is now ‘cheapest electricity in history’, confirms IEA, Guest post: How energy-efficient LED bulbs lit up India in just five years, Budget 2020: Key climate and energy announcements, Climate strikers: Open letter to EU leaders on why their new climate law is ‘surrender’, Europe ‘could get 10 times’ its electricity needs from onshore wind, study says, In-depth Q&A: Why Ireland is ‘nowhere near’ meeting its climate-change goals, Guest post: Calculating the true climate impact of aviation emissions, Coronavirus: Tracking how the world’s ‘green recovery’ plans aim to cut emissions, Germans most worried about climate change, analysis shows, New US poll shows gap between scientists, the public, and politicians on climate change, US election tracker 2020: Democrats and Republicans on energy and climate, Q&A: How the ‘climate assembly’ says the UK should reach net-zero, CCC: UK risks ‘egg on face’ unless it accelerates climate plans, Four more years of Donald Trump could 'delay global emissions cuts by 10 years’, Guest post: A brief history of climate targets and technological promises, COP25: Key outcomes agreed at the UN climate talks in Madrid, Fuel savings in US cars have ‘cut 17bn tonnes of CO2 since 1975’, Explainer: How climate change is affecting wildfires around the world, Explainer: How the rise and fall of CO2 levels influenced the ice ages. A 2017 analysis in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society noted that between the late 19th century and 1980, new records for the hottest year would happen about every eight to 11 years. One of this 2020’s notable hotspots has been Siberia, which has been covered by an angry, deep-red blotch on global temperature maps. If 2020 does top the list, it will do so without the major El Niño event that boosted global temperatures four years ago—and thus will provide an important marker of the power of the long-term warming trend driven by human activities that emit greenhouse gases. Missing values represent datasets that have yet to report their September temperatures.
2020 could be the world’s hottest year on record, scientists say, The Arctic hasn’t been this warm for 3 million years.
Global year-to-date temperatures show little deviation from 2016, the warmest calendar year recorded so far, Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service reported on Wednesday. It will certainly place in the top five—a marker of how much the world has warmed. In September, temperatures reached 0.63 degrees Celsius (1.15 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 30-year historical average, with the Siberian Arctic and southeastern Europe in particular feeling the warming effects of climate change.
London: Climate scientists warned 2020 could be the world’s hottest year on record, with September temperatures eclipsing previous highs and Arctic ice retreating from the seas it usually covers. The remaining 16% comes from other factors including carbon monoxide, black carbon and halocarbons, such as CFCs.
Wind turbines in Marchfeld at sunrise, Vienna, Austria. The unusually high temperatures this year are “in part due to human-caused climate change,” NCEI said. The Union of Concerned Scientists warned yesterday that high temperatures in Florida “could require residents to spend more money on energy use in their homes at a time when unemployment has skyrocketed” because of the COVID-19 pandemic. 2020 expected to be Earth's warmest year on record, scientists say. Climate models provide physics-based estimates of future warming given different assumptions about future emissions, greenhouse gas concentrations and other climate-influencing factors. It was a record-setting outlier at the time. Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Utah each had their warmest August on record.
Likewise most of the world’s oceans have also been very warm, says Ahira Sánchez-Lugo, a climatologist at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.
And Schmidt says leaving that information out misses one of the fastest-warming spots on the globe.
Factcheck: What is the carbon footprint of streaming video on Netflix? Already, through the first three months of the year, it's the second-warmest on record.
It ended as the 7th-warmest in the YTD record. NOAA warned last month about widespread riverine flooding in the interior U.S., particularly in the Missouri River Valley and the Mississippi River Valley.
And there are always hotspots somewhere on the globe in a given year, so the one in Siberia is not unusual, Schmidt says. Sea ice volume was the fourth lowest on record in 2020, and there has been a clear downward trend in sea ice volume over the past few decades.
The average global land and ocean surface temperature from January through March was 2.07 degrees Fahrenheit (1.15 degrees Celsius) above the average since 1880, NOAA reported. Coronavirus: What could lifestyle changes mean for tackling climate change? “Natural events, such as El Niño-induced warming in the Pacific, influence the climate system,” said Prof Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office.
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